Analysis of China's Chemical Fiber Industry in the First Half of 2012

In the first half of the year, China's chemical fiber industry was generally stable in operation, and production and investment maintained growth. However, the market performance was sluggish and demand was weak. The prices of most products continued to decline, and the benefits declined significantly. The situation faced by the chemical fiber industry in the second half of the year is still severe, and there is no obvious improvement in the operation.

First, the first half of the chemical fiber industry operation

(I) Continuous growth in production

From January to June, chemical fiber output was 18.85 million tons, an increase of 14.6% over the same period of last year. The man-made fiber output was 1.84 million tons, an increase of 36.4% year-on-year; the synthetic fiber output was 17.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. The production of viscose staple fiber, nylon and polypropylene increased rapidly, with growth rates of 25.4%, 16.2% and 18.7%, respectively. Acrylic, vinylon and spandex production grew at a relatively slow rate, with growth rates of 4.0%, 0.0% and 4.2% respectively.

(B) There has been a drop in imports

From January to May, the cumulative imports of chemical fiber reached 340,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%. Among major products, the import volume of polyester staple fiber, polyester filament, nylon filament, spandex, viscose staple fiber, and viscose filament decreased by 3.7%, 17.4%, 6.5%, 7.9%, 10.8%, and 18.2, respectively. %, imports of acrylic fiber increased by 7.5% year-on-year.

(III) Steady growth in investment

From January to May, the actual investment in the chemical fiber industry was 31.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and the growth rate was 42.2% lower than the same period of last year. Among them, the actual investment in man-made fiber manufacturing increased by 56.0% year-on-year, and the actual investment in synthetic fiber manufacturing increased by 20.1% year-on-year.

(IV) Significant decline in benefits

From January to May, the total profit of the chemical fiber industry was 6.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.1%; the loss reached 30.8%; the number of loss-making enterprises increased by 138.8%; the total loss of loss-making enterprises increased by 284.6%. Among them, the total profit of man-made fiber manufacturing industry decreased by 38.5% year-on-year, the total profit of polyester fiber manufacturing industry decreased by 53.8%, the total profit of acrylic fiber manufacturing industry decreased by 137.5% year-on-year, and the total profit of spandex fiber manufacturing industry decreased by 96.9%.

Second, the main problems faced

(I) Insufficient demand in the downstream market

First, weaving companies are subject to insufficient orders and weak demand, and the boot load is significantly lower than the same period of last year. In January of this year, some weaving companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces maintained an average operating rate of about 20%. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate gradually returned to normal levels, and the operating rate in May and June decreased significantly. By the end of June, weaving companies only maintained about 50% of the operating rate. Operating rate. Second, the number of textile and apparel exports declined. From January to May, exports of textiles and garments totaled 93.5 billion U.S. dollars, up only 2.6% year-on-year, 23.6 percentage points lower than last year's growth rate. Excluding price factors, the number of textile and apparel exports showed a downward trend.

(II) Great fluctuations in prices of chemical fiber raw materials

Since February, crude oil prices have continued to rise, rising to the highest since May 4, 2011. From May to June, crude oil prices continued to fall rapidly. In the last trading day of June, the crude oil market rebounded sharply. The price trend of chemical fiber raw materials, especially synthetic fiber raw materials, was greatly affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices. The price of major synthetic fiber raw materials has decreased significantly since March. In May and June, raw material prices have also declined rapidly due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. , Synthetic fiber products lost cost support, and the downstream demand is not booming, resulting in a rapid decline in synthetic fiber prices, the "buy up and not buy down" mentality led to further weakened market confidence, product prices continued to fall.

(III) Investment remains hot

In recent years, the overall operation of the chemical fiber industry has been good. The attention of the industry's internal and external capital to the industry has continued to increase, resulting in a rapid increase in production capacity. The relevant equipment accessories have even been ordered until the second half of 2014. Some companies have already booked in the first half of 2015. Although the operation trend of the chemical fiber industry has shifted from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the declining cycle, some projects have been postponed or postponed. However, in the first half of this year, polyester capacity of 2 million tons, polyester filaments and polyester staple fiber spinning capacity was added. 112 Ten thousand tons.

In the second half of this year, the chemical fiber industry will still face the situation of insufficient demand. In addition, problems such as rising labor costs and pressure from New production capacity will continue to exist. In the second half of the year, domestic macroeconomic policies will tend to be relaxed, and market liquidity will increase. This will help the industry recover. Chemical fiber companies should focus on technological progress and product development, speed up the transformation and upgrading, and realize the transformation from quantity expansion to quality improvement.