The impact of the global cotton yarn market

United States:

China's cotton policy has been further aggravated by the global cotton price impacted by the impact of the US cotton harvest. New York futures cotton fell to its lowest level since 2009 (24/9/2014), and future cotton prices continued to retreat in the past five years. The cumulative gains closed at $61.57 per pound.

This has the greatest impact on U.S. farmers who hope that the cotton price will continue to rebound. In the case of U.S. farmers, it has already fallen below the balance of profit and loss. It is even more worrying that policy adjustments may hurt global trade and curb demand.

The U.S. government originally forecast that China's import volume for the 2014/15 crop year will be 8 million bales. China's planned reduction is almost half of the U.S. government's estimate.

U.S. farmers said that they may not grow cotton next year and switch to sweet potato and glutinous rice with better prices.

India and Pakistan and other yarn producing countries:

The adjustment of China’s cotton policy has affected the production and export of cotton yarn in India and Pakistan. If the policy difference is lower than the previous market price difference, the demand for Chinese cotton yarn imports will decrease, while the export of India and Pakistan’s cotton yarn will also drop significantly, but China’s cotton and cotton yarn The policy is shielded, so reserve more room for mediation.

However, downstream industries such as knitting companies have certain demands for solving the problem of three-wire yarns for the U.S. and Australian cotton bleaching yarns. In addition, India-Pakistan has the absolute advantage in the production of coarse yarns.

This wave caused the international cotton price to drop so that other countries, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, were cheaper in cotton costs, coupled with low production costs. The price of cotton yarn was aimed at domestic competition, which may cause greater pressure on domestic cotton spinning companies. .

Impact of short-term domestic and foreign markets:

New York’s March cotton futures cth4 may fall below 60 cents, and futures prices continue to retreat from the cumulative gains over the past five years. Cotton prices have fallen by as much as 25% since May and will fluctuate in the short term.

It is expected that as China digests cotton stocks, domestic cotton prices will continue to fall. This expectation makes it difficult for domestic customers to purchase cotton because banks will worry that customers hold expensive cotton stocks, which will further pressure cotton spinning companies.

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